Other than the success of the Peshmerga and other Kurdish forces, Iraq is in a pretty dire situation. The President of Iraq, Fuad Masum, nominated a new prime minister to replace the current prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. One of the reasons that the United States has refuse to send support to the Iraqi army is that Maliki is a Shi'ite Islamist, and his policies of isolating and oppressing the Sunni minority may have contributed to the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and other Sunni extremist groups. Unfortunately, the new Prime Minister is from the same Shi'ite Islamist party that Maliki is from, and Maliki is also rallying certain military units who are loyal to him to take up positions in Baghdad. There is potential for a leadership crisis and even a battle between different factions.
Unfortunately, if a leadership crisis or battle does occur, it will significantly weaken the Iraqi army. The Islamic State is still close to both Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. If members of the Iraqi army were to start fighting among themselves, the Islamic State would have a much easier job of taking Baghdad. Without the Iraqi Army, the Islamic State could then focus on attacking the Kurds, who continue to be the only faction significantly pushing back against the Islamic State, albeit with help from American airstrikes.
One course of action for the United States could be to support the Kurds. Unfortunately, such a decision could alienate American allies, including Turkey, where a large Kurdish minority exists which wants its own nation. The establishment of a Kurdistan out of Iraq could encourage Kurds in other nations, including Iran, Syria, and Turkey, to try to establish their own breakaway regions. Supporting the Kurds could anger Turkey, a rising power that the U.S. could need in the future to counter the resurgence of Russia in the region. In fact, Turkey's control of the Bosporus strait potentially eliminates Russia's ability to put its navy in the Mediterranean, a huge strategic advantage for America.
In the end, the Middle East is still a powder keg. Nations' borders pay no attention to tribal, religious, or ethnic boundaries. Iraq, Iran, and Syria especially have multiple religions and ethnicities throughout them. The U.S. needs to carefully weigh its options before making a decision. While quick, decisive action should be taken to stop the further spread of the Islamic State, America seriously needs a long-term strategy. Whether that is just the defeat of the Islamic State, or the establishment of a new Iraqi government, or even splitting Iraq into a Sunni nation, Shi'ite nation, and Kurdish nation, the United States needs to have clearly defined objectives. Otherwise our motto could become: "We're pulling out of Iraq, and we always will be."
Unfortunately, if a leadership crisis or battle does occur, it will significantly weaken the Iraqi army. The Islamic State is still close to both Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. If members of the Iraqi army were to start fighting among themselves, the Islamic State would have a much easier job of taking Baghdad. Without the Iraqi Army, the Islamic State could then focus on attacking the Kurds, who continue to be the only faction significantly pushing back against the Islamic State, albeit with help from American airstrikes.
One course of action for the United States could be to support the Kurds. Unfortunately, such a decision could alienate American allies, including Turkey, where a large Kurdish minority exists which wants its own nation. The establishment of a Kurdistan out of Iraq could encourage Kurds in other nations, including Iran, Syria, and Turkey, to try to establish their own breakaway regions. Supporting the Kurds could anger Turkey, a rising power that the U.S. could need in the future to counter the resurgence of Russia in the region. In fact, Turkey's control of the Bosporus strait potentially eliminates Russia's ability to put its navy in the Mediterranean, a huge strategic advantage for America.
In the end, the Middle East is still a powder keg. Nations' borders pay no attention to tribal, religious, or ethnic boundaries. Iraq, Iran, and Syria especially have multiple religions and ethnicities throughout them. The U.S. needs to carefully weigh its options before making a decision. While quick, decisive action should be taken to stop the further spread of the Islamic State, America seriously needs a long-term strategy. Whether that is just the defeat of the Islamic State, or the establishment of a new Iraqi government, or even splitting Iraq into a Sunni nation, Shi'ite nation, and Kurdish nation, the United States needs to have clearly defined objectives. Otherwise our motto could become: "We're pulling out of Iraq, and we always will be."